Discover how the Dutch Book Theorem reveals profit opportunities in betting and finance when probabilities are misjudged.

Introduction After the WHO prequalified the first vaccine against mpox, we aimed to identify the influence of vaccine ...

Discover how emotional biases impact stock market crash estimates. See why expert analysis suggests lower risk and learn how to refine your own forecasts.

where $l$ and $u$ are the lower and upper probability bounds, while $\phi$ and $\psi$ denote propositional logic formulas. For example the following two sentences ...

Abstract: During an eruptive event, the near-real-time monitoring of volcanic explosion onset and its mass flow rate (MFR) is a key factor to predict ash plume dispersion and to mitigate risk to air ...

Physicists have derived a quantum version of Bayes’ rule, revealing how beliefs and probabilities update in the quantum realm with potential applications in computing and beyond. Credit: Shutterstock ...

Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. In simple terms, it tells us how likely it is for a particular outcome to take place. When there are multiple events, calculating ...